Random Acts of Thought

You have arrived at Jeromes space on the Web Welcome to my rambling ground. I have set up this space for a number of reasons. Firstly I am not good at keeping in touch with people. I KNOW I should write letters, make phone calls and such, but I am plain bad at it.A blog seemed a practical way of letting many people at once know how I am doing and what I am up to. Secondly I enjoy talking and thinking. This seemed like a good place to express my views on whatever came to mind.

Name:

The Thoughtful Ape is a primate who is honestly interested in understanding the world he lives in. He is particularly interested in cognitive biases and the limits of intuition. Like most of his species he is both vain and opinionated but is interested in understanding what is true despite these faults. The Thoughtfuls Ape's opinions change and evolve with time. What is posted here reflects his opinion at the date at which it was written.

Sunday, August 28, 2005

A culture of meanness

Probably one of the biggest developments in television over the last 10 years has been the growth of reality TV.

MTVs Real World, was the grandaddy of reality TV shows. The basic premise was very simple by todays standards. A bunch of goodlooking teenagers are given a fully furnished apartment on the condition that their lives their are filmed and they discuss their experiences on camera. Looking back now the early real worlds look almost quaint.

Perhaps the most patently absurd claim is any correlation between reality and the ever more bizarre and outlandish scenarios into which these shows thrust their "heroes"

Far from being "reality" or unscripted these shows follow formats designed to bring up out very predictable outcome. The humiliation and embarassment of their contestants. Reality television is essentially pornographic.. And as in the case of pornography an increasingly jaded audience requires ever more graphic and vivid thrills. The contestants must be made ever more uncomfortable, the embarassment must be made more accute. And like a lot of pornography it is fundamentally about power dynamics and little else.

Reality TV is not "reality" anymore than hardcore pornography is a full reflection of human sexuality but a crude caricature that debases those who produce and those who consume it.

These shows are fueled almost entirely by negativity. They demean those who take part and those who are titillated by them. Ostensibly shedding light on human nature they are instead designed to bring out the very worst in both their participants and their audience.

Adults should try to be better. Adulthood as a social not just biological reality is very important, and I sometimes worry that we are losing that. Adulthood entails moral as well as finanical responsibilities...

How can a parent teach children respect for other people, when they consume "entertainment"
whos main purpose is to humiliate and tear down other people, and to violate their dignity?

To me Jackass is the bottom of the line... Approaprately its an MTV show the same channel that gave birth to the reality TV genre in the first place.

Jackass is about watching someone getting physically hurt, fired at with Taser guns, walloped with hockey pucks and made to participate in ever more bizarre and painful stunts.
Often it is followed by closeup of the bruises he has aquired doing these stunts as if to verify the authenticity of the pain he is inflicting on himself for other peoples amusement. Again the parallel to the porn industry jumps out at me. I

I really dont know where it will end....

I think the envelope of decency will keep getting pushed until it breaks.

The TV station will misjudge their contestants capacity for mental or physical abuse and someone will seriously harm themselves or another person

Everyone who watches this stuff will be to blame.

Thursday, August 25, 2005

Progress?

This was in todays New York Times

Race is on for cellular system for the subway

The decision to introduce cellphone service in the city's underground subway stations touched off a flurry of interest in the telecommunications industry yesterday, as the Metropolitan Transportation Authority began soliciting bids for a 10-year contract that will involve immense technical complexity and probably be worth $50 million to $100 million.

My question is why? Has there ever been a problem of immense technical complexity less worth solving?

Tuesday, August 23, 2005

The Franchise QB fallacy

The franchise quarterback fallacy strikes me as perhaps the most puzzling piece of irrationality in professional sports. In the past 15 NFL drafts there have been 33 Quarterbacks taken in the first round of the draft. None have won a superbowl and only 3 have appeared in the Superbowl while representing the team that drafted them... Only 9 have ever made the Pro Bowl. It is clear to me that the classical teambuilding gameplan (Draft a blue chip passer early and build around him. Have him start for 12 years and win 2 or 3 Super Bowls on his way to Canton) is a very very long shot... The question is why are so many teams in Pro Football wedded to this method of doing things?
Building a team in this manner is analogous to making tech stock startups the backbone of your investment portfolio. Does it work occasionally? Sure. Is that proof of its soundness of an operating strategy? No. I can potentially make a lot of money playing roulette in vegas. That doesnt make playing roulette a rational investment strategy. Conventional wisdom says that you cant evaluate a draft until five years after it has occured. I think that this is an alluring but ultimately wrongheaded way to think about it. It invariably gives too much credit (and too much blame) to scouting departments and not enough to randomness. Decisions must be evaluated on the basis of the information that was available at the time. I think that scouting departments in Pro Football dramatically overestimate their own ability to predict future performance.
The truth is that the performance of college football players at the NFL level is HIGHLY unpredictable.. We should not be so quick to pronounce GMs and coaches Geniuses of goats on the basis of their drafting success.

Though I have not had the time to research it, what would interest me is how much correlation there is between how highly a player is drafted and the quality his pro performance...
(For example how much better on average are the stats for a high first round QB vs a low first round QB after say 3 or 4 seasons)
What I am certain of is that there is a MUCH higher correlation between the position in which a player is drafted and his salary (and hence how much salary cap space he consumes)

High first round draft picks are very coveted by the teams that hold them but are they as desirable as they seem? They are EXPENSIVE and unpredictable.. High first round Quarterback are ESPECIALLY expensive and unpredictable.

A high first round pick eats up a lot of salary cap space that can't be used to fortify other areas of the team. Teams that hold high first round picks do so because they are bad. Bad teams typically have multiple areas of weakness

Another issue with Quarterback picks is development time. Developing a Quarterback capable of giving his team a legitimate championship shot takes several seasons. (Abberations like Dan Marino and Ben Rothlisburger notwithstanding) In a previous era before free agency it took approximately 5 years to develop a league doormat into a championship contender. In the modern era the boom and bust cycle has speeded up and it can be done in 3.
Waiting for that QB to develop may have seemed a wise time investment in the past. Can it still be justified in view of the the faster development curve of teams in the modern era? Im not convinced. Draft Philosophy has possibly not changed enough to take this into account.
Finally teams win in the NFL by getting value for money. In a league where everyone spends the same the difference between winners and losers is how many guys outperform their contract. Do high round quarterbacks represent value for cap space?
They are paid salaries disproportionate to their contribution on the assumption that they can be developed into stars. In the unlikely event that they live up to expectations they will be entitled to new contracts just as they reach their prime. All of this costs a lot of cap space... Many of the teams that have contended in the free agent era have done so with quarterback who were underpaid. The very fact that they were underpaid is what allowed those teams to construct championship caliber rosters around them


APPENDIX
1st round Quarterbacks taken in the last 15 years
Alex Smith
Aaron Rodgers
Jason Campbell
Eli Manning
Phillip Rivers
Ben Roethlisburger
Carson Palmer
Byron Leftwich
Kyle Boller
Rex Grossman
David Carr
Joey Harrington
Patrick Ramsey
Michael Vick (Pro Bowl Appearance)
Drew Brees (Pro Bowl Appearance)
Chad Pennington
Tim Couch
Donovan Mcnabb (Superbowl Appearance) (Pro Bowl Appearance)
Akili Smith
Daunte Culpepper (Pro Bowl Appearance)
Cade McNown
Peyton Manning (Pro Bowl Appearance)
Ryan Leaf
Jim Druckenmiller
Steve McNair (Superbowl appearance) (Pro Bowl Appearance)
Kerry Collins .... (Superbowl but with a different team) (Pro Bowl appearance)
Heath Shuler
Trent Dilfer (Superbowl appearance but with a different team) (Pro Bowl Appearance)
Drew Bledsoe (Superbowl appearance) (Pro Bowl Appearance)
Rick Mirer
Todd Marinovich
Jeff George
Andre Ware

Friday, August 19, 2005

Virtual mugging

I found this so deeply weird I had to post it. From the New Scientist website.

Computer characters mugged in virtual crime spree

A man has been arrested in Japan on suspicion carrying out a virtual mugging spree by using software "bots" to beat up and rob characters in the online computer game Lineage II. The stolen virtual possessions were then exchanged for real cash.
The Chinese exchange student was arrested by police in Kagawa prefecture, southern Japan, the Mainichi Daily News reports.
Several players had their characters beaten and robbed of valuable virtual objects, which could have included the Earring of Wisdom or the Shield of Nightmare. The items were then fenced through a Japanese auction website, according to NCsoft, which makes Lineage II. The assailant was a character controlled by a software bot, rather than a human player, making it unbeatable.
Ren Reynolds, a UK-based computer games consultant and an editor of the gaming research site Terra Nova, says the case highlights the problem of bots in virtual worlds.

Wednesday, August 10, 2005

The North Korean Thought Police

Totalitarian state are truly grim and frightening things and perhaps none exist today more grim and frightening than North Koreas hideous regime.
Today I read something that blew me away. It is something that I can scarcely believe. It seems like a literary device from a George Orwell novel.. . Maybe a metaphor for the pervasiveness of state influence. It isn’t a metaphor.. It is a literal truth. Of all the things I have read about this bizarre and evil regime somehow this strikes me as the most disturbing.

“In North Korea homes the state issued radios broadcast only one (government) station… North Korean radios can be turned down but not off.”